2nd Edition of Agriculture, Forestry, and Horticulture World Conference 2026

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to pastoral livelihoods in the fragile mountain ecosystems of Himachal Pradesh, a north-western Himalayan state in India where indigenous communities depend heavily on livestock-based systems for subsistence and income. This study assessed the economic impact of climate variability on pastoral households and analyzed the adaptation strategies adopted to cope with emerging climatic risks. Primary data were collected from 275 pastoral households using multistage random and snowball sampling techniques to capture dispersed and migratory populations. A modified Ricardian model was employed to assess the impact of climatic and socio-economic factors on pastoral net revenue. The analysis utilized a log-linear specification that included maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall (along with their quadratic terms), as well as socio-economic variables such as years in schooling, farming experience, and livestock units. The results indicated that maximum temperature significantly reduced net returns, although its positive quadratic term suggested non-linear effects beyond certain thresholds. Minimum temperature and rainfall positively influenced income, with diminishing marginal benefits at higher levels. Livestock units significantly enhanced net returns, while schooling negatively affected pastoral income, reflecting gradual livelihood diversification away from traditional pastoralism. The model explained 59 per cent of the variation in net returns (R² = 0.59; adjusted R² = 0.57), indicating strong explanatory power. Binary logistic regression was employed to analyze five adaptation strategies: mobility adjustment, purchase of feed and fodder, regular medical check-ups, breeding diversity and movement to better pastures. Family size and livestock units significantly affected most strategies. Breeding diversity was positively associated with experience and herd size, while larger family size reduced investments in diversification. The findings underscored the climate sensitivity of mountain pastoral systems and the need for targeted policy support. Strengthening veterinary services, improving access to climate-resilient fodder resources, and integrating traditional pastoral knowledge into state-level adaptation planning were essential to enhance long-term livelihood resilience in Himalayan regions.